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3 things Ontario’s new COVID-19 modelling data tells us

Jul 26, 2021 , , , , by shlf

Ontario has released its latest COVID-19 modelling projections, changing its outlook considerably since it released its last set of projections on Oct. 29. 

“The spread of the pandemic at this point is quite significant,” said Dr. Adalsteinn Brown, dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health, as he presented the latest modelling data on Nov. 12. “Given a relatively consistent volume of testing, case rates are rising substantially. This is challenging and dangerous news for the health system.”

During the last update in October, Premier Doug Ford expressed optimism that the province was moving away from the worst-case scenario, even going so far as to call the update “good news.” Ontario recorded 934 new cases of COVID-19 and 10 new deaths that day, and was projected to see, at most, about 1,200 cases per day by mid-November. 

The province blew past 1,200 daily cases on Nov. 8, with 1,328 new cases, and reported a record 1,575 new cases on Nov. 12.

Here are three things you need to know about Ontario’s newest modelling projections.

The curve

Despite the provincial government’s confidence in October, Ontario is not flattening its epidemic curve. 

COVID-19 hospitalizations have risen by 61 per cent in the past three weeks, and the number of outbreaks has risen by 57 per cent in the past week. Mortality rates are also rising in long-term-care homes. 

“Long-term-care home resident mortality is increasing and as community spread continues, outbreaks will increase,” Brown said. “And as outbreaks increase, the risk of mortality in long-term-care homes will continue to increase.”

Ontariocurve This graph by COVID-19 MC charts the path of Ontario’s epidemic curve in the coming weeks if the province maintains a daily COVID-19 infection rate of 5 per cent. – COVID-19-MC graphic

Brown said the province is currently experiencing a COVID-19 case growth rate of four per cent, and compared our epidemic curve with those of several European countries struggling to flatten their curves despite imposing lockdown measures, including France, the Netherlands, the U.K. and Germany. 

If Ontario’s growth rate continues at three per cent, its epidemic curve will surpass France’s before the end of December. If it continues at five per cent, which Brown said tracks closer to our current growth rate, our epidemic curve will soon exceed those of France, the U.K. and Germany. 

The projection

At a growth rate of three per cent, Ontario could see 3,000 to 4,000 new cases of COVID-19 per day before the end of December. At a “fairly optimistic” growth rate of five per cent, Brown said the province could see between 6,000 and 7,000 daily new cases. 

Ontario’s intensive care units have a capacity threshold at which they need to reduce access to care for non-COVID-19 patients. That threshold is 150 ICU beds, meaning care is reduced once 150 ICU beds are occupied by COVID-19 patients.

At both projected growth rates, Ontario will have exceeded its ICU occupancy within two or three weeks. 

Before the end of December, Brown said, all projected scenarios have Ontario exceeding 200 ICU beds, with 450 beds occupied by COVID patients in the worst-case scenario.

The call-to-action

Dr. Dirk Huyer, Ontario’s chief coroner, said during the Nov. 12 announcement that most of Ontario’s outbreaks can be linked to social gatherings like Halloween parties, weddings, worship events, after-work get-togethers and other similar gatherings. 

For this reason, Dr. David Williams, Ontario’s chief medical officer of health, called on Ontarians to avoid gatherings and limit their outings to essential trips, especially in COVID-19 hot spots. 

“You need to understand that by going out in congregate settings, you can put yourself at risk,” he said, reminding Ontarians to use proper hand hygiene and follow public health guidelines.

“The numbers are in front of us, the task is in front of us, and the solution we’re aware of.”

Williams did not announce any new containment measures by the province.

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Midland high school finding unique ways to adapt to COVID-19 pandemic restrictions

Jul 22, 2021 , , , , by shlf

Although the COVID-19 pandemic has drastically impacted the school year, the show will go on.

Georgian Bay District Secondary School teachers and students have found interesting ways to adapt to the restrictions in place due to the COVID-19 pandemic. While the majority of extracurricular activities have been cancelled, GBDSS will still have a school band and will still produce a school play.

“Last spring, our school musical was cancelled due to COVID-19. This year, we knew we needed to do something that was pandemic proof,” said Betony Main, a teacher in the arts department.

In March, students will be putting on a production of “The Brothers Grimm Spectaculathon,” a popular play that has been adapted for livestreaming.

“It will be done entirely via livestream, with each character in their own window,” said Main. “It won’t be on a stage with actors interacting in real space.”

Each actor will be set up separately in the school with a computer and webcam. The program StreamYard will allow for complete control of the show, including which windows appear and where they appear on screen.

“We have 35 actors. It is going to be tricky, but we are excited for the challenge,” said Main.

Auditions have wrapped up and students have started rehearsals. For now, they are just learning their lines and roles. The technical aspect will be tackled later.

“I’m glad we adapted to the current situation,” said Grade 12 student Chloe Winborne. “I am so excited that we still get to do a play this year.”

When students arrived back at school in September, many were unsure how the year would unfold. It wasn’t going to be normal, and extracurriculars weren’t a given.

“I thought we might somehow pull off a spring play, but knew we weren’t going to have other smaller productions,” said Grade 12 student Sarah Larmand. “I’m really happy we have a play we can all be a part of for our last year of high school.”

Students were also thrilled to discover that GBDSS would still have a band this school year. 

Due to the pandemic, students aren’t allowed to play any wind instruments. So, the school has invested in additional percussion instruments like chimes, marimbas, xylophones, bongos and kettledrums, and created a percussion ensemble.

Grade 12 student Daniel Farr, who normally plays the clarinet, is learning a number of new instruments.

“I am starting fresh on everything,” he said, noting he is now playing the keyboard and snare drum.  “I am glad there is a band. We are all excited and having a lot of fun.”

Jayneigh Hesler is learning how to play the bass drum, glockenspiel and tambourine.

“I didn’t think there was going to be a band,” said the Grade 11 student. “It’s nice to have that outlet, especially when there is not a lot else going on.”

STORY BEHIND THE STORY: Reporter Andrew Mendler reached out to GBDSS to see how COVID-19 pandemic restrictions were impacting extracurricular activities.

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Ontario reports 700 new cases of COVID-19, passing previous daily record of 640 in April

Jul 21, 2021 , , , , by shlf

Premier Doug Ford confirmed Ontario is in a “second wave” of COVID-19 after setting a daily record with 700 new cases on Monday, but has no plans to rush back into lockdowns despite calls for stronger measures from the Ontario Hospital Association and others.

“We don’t want to turn back a stage unless we absolutely have to,” Health Minister Christine Elliott said Monday as Ford told Ontarians the province’s fate will be determined by the precautions they take to limit the spread of the highly contagious virus.

“Our collective actions will decide if we face a wave or a tsunami,” he said, calling the 43 per cent surge in new infections from Sunday’s 491 “deeply concerning.” Just one month ago, on Aug. 28, there were 122 new cases confirmed.

But no new restrictions were announced Monday beyond the recent closure of strip clubs, ordering restaurants and bars to stop serving alcohol at 11 p.m. and close at midnight except for take-out-and delivery, and a reduction in the size of indoor and outdoor gatherings to 10 and 50 with physical distancing.

The previous high in new cases was 640 infections reported by the Ministry of Health on April 24, with 50 deaths. By contrast, there was one new death reported Monday. Daily deaths peaked at 86 on April 30.

Chief medical officer Dr. David Williams said it’s difficult to predict how bad the second wave will be, but “we have to assume it could be a lot worse” than the first wave, and advised Ontarians to “hunker down” to reverse the trend.

“People have gotten very casual,” he said, noting the 700 cases were “slightly” higher than expected because of a backlog of cases being cleared by labs that otherwise might have been reported on the weekend but still a “wake-up call.”

Toronto had 344 new cases — also a record — with 104 in Peel, 89 in Ottawa and 57 in York region. There were more than 41,000 tests processed on Sunday, about four times higher than the level of testing that was in place last April.

The Ontario Hospital Association urged Ford to put the GTA and Ottawa back into Stage 2, banning indoor dining and drinking at bars and restaurants, closing gyms and restricting the number of people at houses of worship and wedding celebrations to slow the spread and help keep schools open, as 36 new cases were reported in schools and a Scarborough elementary school was closed because of an outbreak.

“Without public health measures in place to limit opportunities for disease transmission, Ontario will soon see higher numbers of hospitalizations, admissions to intensive care units … and more deaths,” the association warned in a statement.

Williams acknowledged it takes a week or two for new cases to impact hospitalizations, and said the government’s next moves depend on where infections go from here. He noted some parts of the province are still seeing few or no new infections, making regional action and a “targeted” approach to future restrictions the most likely path.

He added there’s concern but no need to hit the “panic button” because about 1.5 per cent of people getting tests lately are positive for the virus, compared with a much higher 8.5 at the peak and a low of 0.4 per cent in the summer.

There were 128 patients in hospital for COVID-19, the ministry reported Monday, the highest in two months, with 29 in intensive care, the most since mid-August, and 17 patients on ventilators, an increase of one. Doctors have said hospitalizations have remained relatively low because the majority of people catching COVID-19 are under 40 and do not require as much care, although higher case loads will lead to more infections in older age groups.

Dr. Irfan Dhalla, an internal medicine specialist and vice-president of St. Michael’s Hospital, said he understands the government needs to digest Monday’s spike in numbers but tweeted, “It’s time for the government to lead.”

Green Leader Mike Schreiner echoed calls for “aggressive action” and said Ford should have taken more steps sooner to prevent the latest surge.

“The numbers are starting to get scary,” said Liberal Leader Stephen Del Duca.

Ford promised $52 million to recruit and train more nurses, personal support workers and other health-care staff to get ready for the fall and winter, including 800 nurses and 2,000 PSWs, many of whom will help residents in nursing homes and be given a $5,000 incentive for a six-month commitment. That is to forestall a repeat of staff shortages seen last winter and spring as nursing homes were hammered by the virus, killing more than 1,800 residents and eight staff.

Last week the government announced more than $1 billion in funding to expand testing and provide more contact tracing and management. Rapidly increasing case numbers make it more difficult for public health workers to track down people exposed to those confirmed to have COVID-19 and isolate them, stopping chains of transmission.

is a Toronto-based reporter covering Ontario politics for the Star. Follow him on Twitter:

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Ontario reports 74 new COVID-19 cases in its public schools, including 41 more students

Jul 21, 2021 , , , , by shlf

The number of new cases in public schools across the province has jumped by 74 from the previous day, to a total of 470 in the last two weeks.

, the province reported 41 more students were infected for a total of 275 in the last two weeks; since school began there have been overall total of 333.

The data shows there are 10 more staff members for a total of 66 in the last two weeks — and an overall total of 102.

The latest report also shows 23 more individuals who weren’t identified for a total of 129 in that category — and an overall total of 176.

There are 347 schools with a reported case, which the province notes is about 7.2 per cent of the 4,828 public schools in Ontario.

Two schools are currently closed, according to the Ministry of Health figures.

One of those is St. Charles Catholic School near Dufferin Street and Lawrence Avenue West in North York.

St. Charles closed Monday for a week after an itinerant music teacher, who tested positive for COVID-19, had contact with three classes in the school of 250.

That staff member also had been assigned to four other schools — St. Demetrius, St. Mark, St. Roch and St. Ursula. But only St. Charles is closed.

Like many boards, the Toronto Catholic board has continued using travelling, or itinerant, teachers to instruct students in gym, music and French during the pandemic, a plan that was approved by the Ministry of Education.

It’s the first Toronto Catholic school to shut down because of COVID, and the second school in the city.

Mason Road Junior P.S. which has been closed since Sept. 28 Tuesday. More than 170 students and staff at the Scarborough elementary school were ordered to stay home and isolate while the school shut its doors after four positive cases of COVID-19 were confirmed by the school board, including one student and three staff.

Ottawa’s French Catholic School Board’s École élémentaire catholique Horizon-Jeunesse is also closed according to the Conseil des écoles catholiques du Centre-Est’s

There is a lag between the daily provincial data at 10:30 a.m. and news reports about infections in schools. The provincial data on Tuesday is current as of 2 p.m. Monday. It also doesn’t indicate where the place of transmission occurred.

The Toronto District School Board updates its information on current COVID-19 cases throughout the day . As of 9 a.m., Tuesday, there were 95 TDSB schools with at least one active case — 96 students and 32 staff.

The Toronto Catholic District School Board also updates its information . As of Tuesday at 6 a.m., there were 32 schools with a COVID-19 case, with 37 students and nine staff infected.

Epidemiologists have that the rising numbers in the schools aren’t a surprise, and that the cases will be proportionate to the amount of COVID that is in the community. Ontario reported 548 new cases overall on Tuesday — 201 in Toronto, 90 in Peel, 56 in York Region and 62 in Ottawa.

With the rising numbers, that schools in hot spots across the province — Toronto, Peel, York and Ottawa — will receive an extra $35 million in funding to hire more teachers and staff, boost cleaning or provide devices for families keeping their kids at home to learn.

Premier Doug Ford and Education Minister Stephen Lecce made the announcement of the release of the additional federal funds Monday at Queen’s Park.

“This funding will help provide more physical distancing in classrooms, support smaller classrooms and provide more resources for remote learning,” Ford said.

Education Minister Stephen Lecce said the TDSB is in line for almost $9 million, which would enable it to “hire more than 120 teachers or a hundred more custodians, or 11,000 more technological devices.”

The Toronto Catholic board will receive about $3.4 million, the Peel public board about $5.8 million, the York public board about $4.8 million and the York Catholic board about $2 million, according to the ministry.

With files from Kristin Rushowy

Irelyne Lavery is a breaking news reporter, working out of the Star’s radio room in Toronto. Reach her via email:

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‘It’s really hard for us’: Midland small businesses struggling to survive pandemic

Jul 20, 2021 , , , , by shlf

Business owners in Midland aren’t too concerned about the possibility of another economic shutdown; they are too busy just trying to survive.

“It’s really hard for us. A lot of businesses are having a hard time right now,” said Sarah Kitchen, owner of One Stop Beauty Shop at .

Kitchen is worried about the local small business community, as many are dealing with significant revenue loses and are struggling to make ends meet. She said she believes the worst of the financial implications stemming from COVID-19 have yet to come.

“Could businesses handle an economic shutdown? Who knows. They might not be able to handle operating another six months exactly the way they are right now, even without a shutdown,” said Kitchen.

In order to reopen, most small businesses had to significantly change the way they operate. Smaller places, like One Stop Beauty Shop, are doing less business, as they’ve had to limit the number of people in the building at one time in order to ensure proper distancing. They’ve also had to purchase personal protective equipment, cleaning supplies, protective barriers and signage.

“What’s challenging is operating a non-essential business with reduced revenue when rent, insurance and overhead are the same. You are paying 100 per cent of expenses, while you are only seeing 30 to 60 per cent of your usual revenue,” said Kitchen. 

Although her business has loyal clientele, many of those clients are cutting back on the services they receive, or extending the time between appointments and coming in less regularly than before.

“People have changed the way they spend their money,” said Kitchen. “But, much like ourselves, many of our clients were without work for a very extended period of time.”

She doesn’t blame anyone for these changes, noting that her own personal spending habits have changed. It’s just another aspect of the pandemic that’s affecting the economy.

Christine Taylor of Taylor and Co. Clothiers at . has also experienced a significant reduction in revenue.

“It’s been a struggle. Having very little walk-in traffic has really put some pressure on us this year,” said Taylor. “We are just taking it one day at a time.” 

The cancellation of weddings, proms and graduations due to the COVID-19 pandemic has also had a huge impact on her sales. And with people working from home, there is less of a need for formal wear.

“I’ve sold two suits this year. That’s it,” said Taylor.

The reconstruction of King Street has actually been a saving grace. Taylor ordered less inventory for the year, in anticipation of the construction limiting walk-in traffic. While that’s helped, she still needs to sell enough items to survive.

“I was getting concerned in September. Very concerned,” said Taylor. 

But it’s looking like I will be able to survive the year, especially if I get some Christmas shoppers.”

STORY BEHIND THE STORY: Reporter Andrew Mendler was curious as to how local small businesses were faring in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, so he talked to a few to find out.

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‘We couldn’t be more disappointed’: SS Keewatin relocating to Kingston?

Jul 16, 2021 , , , , by shlf

It appears as though the SS Keewatin will be leaving Port McNicoll.

Skyline Investments, the company that owns the historic Edwardian steamship, is actively working with representatives from the Marine Museum of the Great Lakes to relocate the ship from Port McNicoll to Kingston.

Multiple media outlets have reported that Skyline will be gifting the ship to the Kingston marine museum, pending approval from Heritage Canada, which caught local volunteers with the Friends of the Keewatin off guard.

“We had been led to believe we were still in the running. We knew the effort to move the ship to Kingston was real and is real. What we didn’t know is Skyline’s statement that the ship has been gifted. That came as a surprise,” said David Blevins, spokesperson for the Friends of the Keewatin.

Local volunteers have spent the better part of the last two years working to try and keep the ship docked in Port McNicoll. They had applied to Heritage Canada and received a list of deficiencies to address.

“Heritage Canada had left our application open. We could re-apply and we were working towards that,” said Blevins.

According to Blevins, the Friends of Keewatin had found a financial backer and was working to strengthen their application, before finding out that Skyline officials recently withdrew their application altogether.

“We couldn’t be more disappointed in the fact that Skyline has decided to turn their back on the community,” said Blevins. “Volunteers have worked tirelessly on this vessel to restore it to the world-class artifact that it is. To have it yanked away… it’s just not fair to the community.”

While the situation looks bleak, local volunteers aren’t ready to wave the white flag just yet. They have reached out to multiple levels of government and are making a list-ditch effort to keep the ship docked in Port McNicoll.

“Our disappointment is huge, but we are not going to give up. We are going to look at every possible option that may or may not be available to us,” said Blevins. “We are not done. It may look like it, but none of us are prepared to say we are finished.”

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Ontario school-related COVID-19 cases jump by 74 in its latest report, including 49 students

Jul 14, 2021 , , , , by shlf

The number of new cases in public schools across Ontario has jumped by 74 from the previous day, to a total of 795 in the last two weeks.

, the province reported 49 more students were infected for a total of 444 in the last two weeks; since school began there have been overall total of 920.

The data shows there are five more staff members for a total of 101 in the last two weeks — and an overall total of 241.

The latest report also shows 20 more infections among individuals who weren’t identified for a total of 230 in that category — and an overall total of 480.

There are 501 schools with a reported case, which the province notes is about 10.4 per cent of the 4,828 public schools in Ontario.

Five schools are currently closed, according to the Ministry of Health figures, one more than Wednesday.

There is a lag between the daily provincial data at 10:30 a.m. and news reports about infections in schools. The provincial data on Thursday is current as of 2 p.m. Wednesday. It also doesn’t indicate where the place of transmission occurred.

The Toronto District School Board updates its information on current COVID-19 cases throughout the day . As of 11 p.m. Wednesday, there were 134 TDSB schools with at least one active case — 173 students and 46 staff.

The Toronto Catholic District School Board also updates its information. As of Wednesday at 4:20 p.m., there were 78 schools with a COVID-19 case, with 70 students and 17 staff infected.

Epidemiologists have that the rising numbers in the schools aren’t a surprise, and that the cases will be proportionate to the amount of COVID that is in the community. Ontario reported 841 new cases overall on Thursday — 335 in Toronto, 162 in Peel, 106 in York Region and 72 in Ottawa.

Breanna Xavier-Carter is a breaking news reporter, working out of the Star’s radio room in Toronto. Reach her via email:

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New cases of COVID-19 within Simcoe County schools

Jul 14, 2021 , , , , by shlf

There are new cases of COVID-19 within the Simcoe Muskoka Catholic District School Board and the Simcoe County District School Board. 

St. Joseph’s Catholic High School in Barrie reports two positive cases of the virus. One classroom is closed.

St. Joan of Arc Catholic High School in Barrie has two cases of COVID-19. Two classrooms are closed. 

An outbreak of the virus was declared at Our Lady of Grace Catholic School in Angus on Nov. 12. The outbreak is active. The board reports three confirmed cases and one classroom is closed. 

Monsignor Clair Catholic Elementary School in Barrie has one case of COVID-19. There are no classrooms closed. 

Holy Family Catholic School in Beaverton has two positive cases. Two classrooms are closed. 

There are currently 14 confirmed cases in Simcoe County District School Board schools and facilities.

Boyne River Public School in Alliston has two cases of the virus. Two classrooms are closed. 

Fieldcrest Elementary School in Bradford has one case and one classroom is closed.

Warnica Public School in Barrie has three cases of COVID-19 and one classroom is closed.

Willow Landing Elementary School in Barrie has two cases. There are no classrooms closed. 

An outbreak of the virus was declared at Nottawasaga Pines Secondary School in Angus on Nov. 15. The outbreak is active. There are six cases and five classrooms are closed.

 

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Growing pains: New Tecumseth ponders interim control bylaw for cannabis operations

Jul 5, 2021 , , , , by shlf

New Tecumseth may be putting a temporary freeze on applications related to the production and cultivation of cannabis in order to study the issue further and come up with a set of land-use policies.

At the Sept. 28 committee of the whole meeting, council voted in favour of passing an interim control bylaw for cannabis operations, but the decision still needs to be ratified at a special meeting set to take place Oct. 1.

Council voted on the recommendation after discussing the issue in camera.

Prior to the closed-door discussion, council heard from longtime area resident Mark Manning, who talked about his plan to build a small greenhouse on his 16-acre property to grow recreational cannabis.

He said the cost of going through the site-specific bylaw process to make it legal would be too expensive, noting it would cost around $20,000 in order to prepare the studies for the town.

“Throwing roadblocks in front of community members doesn’t help anyone,” he said.

Director of planning Bruce Hoppe said the intention of the interim bylaw is to “hive off” the cannabis issue from the zoning bylaw review that is currently underway and about three quarters of the way from being completed.

He said the cannabis review would take about a year to complete and the public would have an opportunity to provide input. Once the study is done it would come back to council with recommendations.

Ward boundary review a no go

The majority of council is not interested in revisiting a contentious issue that came up during the previous term of council.

A motion requested by Deputy Mayor Richard Norcross to have the town hire an outside consultant to conduct a review of the town’s ward system and reduce the number of councillors to an odd number was turned down in a 5-4 vote.

The last review, conducted in 2016/2017, was done by council and staff, not an outside consultant as some had requested. The 10-member council did not reduce the number of seats,

The review was conducted after residents launched a petition requesting the wards be evened out to accommodate growth, and for council to be reduced to an odd number of councillors to eliminate the possibility of tied votes.

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Jim Wilson decision gives Simcoe-Grey Conservatives time to pick new candidate, says president

Jun 29, 2021 , , , , by shlf

Jim Wilson’s announcement that he won’t seek re-election in the next Ontario general election has given the local Progressive Conservative riding association the time it needs to find a new candidate, says the riding president.

Wilson, who has been the MPP for the area — first in Simcoe West, then Simcoe-Grey following riding redistribution in 1997 — for 30 years, announced Sept. 24 he would not be seeking the Conservative nomination for 2022, nor would he run as an Independent.

Wilson has been sitting as an Independent MPP since November 2018, after he was removed from caucus by Premier Doug Ford following allegations of sexual misconduct. The results of an investigation have never been released.

Simcoe-Grey PC Association president Simon Ainley said the riding association will be striking a candidate selection committee fairly soon, with the likelihood of a nomination meeting sometime in 2021.

“Because of Jim’s announcement we now have ample time to do our work and to celebrate Jim’s career,” Ainley told Simcoe.com.

Ainley, who has known Wilson for the MPP’s entire time in the Ontario legislature, had high praise for the longtime politician, who also served in various cabinet positions over the years while on the government side, as well as the party’s interim leader in 2014 and 2015.

“In that time, he has never strayed from his prime directive, keeping a laser focus on the needs of his constituents,” Ainley said. “When around him, the discussion always has involved the riding, the latest community issues, what can we do to help — rarely anything else. Jim sits at Queen’s Park today for the same reasons he did when he first arrived in 1990. He never forgets the people who sent him there.”

“Life indeed will go on, but without the steady, caring, dependable political hand that the people of this riding have chosen to send as their representative to Ontario’s Legislature on eight separate occasions. He will be missed.”

The Conservatives have held sway over the area, through various riding configurations, continuously for more than 80 years; Wilson’s time as representative is the second-longest, with Rev. Wally Downer serving as MPP from 1937 until 1975. Downer was succeeded by George McCague; Wilson worked for McCague prior to going into provincial politics.

The next general election is scheduled to take place on or before June 2, 2022.