Canada’s top doctors say the science of COVID-19 is clear — but how to act on it is up to politicians

OTTAWA – Canada’s top public health officers say medical and public health experts agree on the science and how to stem the growing COVID-19 tide, but it’s up to “political masters” to act on that information.

Chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam avoided directly criticizing the Ontario government after the Star reported Premier Doug Ford’s government ignored its own expert advice on when to impose new pandemic restrictions.

But she said all medical officers of health have reached a consensus on the course of action that’s needed, issued clear advice, and are warning that Canadians must further limit their contacts.

Modelling shows that Canada could hit 10,000 daily new cases by the beginning of December if nothing changes, she warned.

“Fires are burning in so many different areas” outside the Atlantic bubble, Tam told reporters.

Deputy public health officer Dr. Howard Njoo warned the epidemic’s second wave could swamp the health-care system, given the current rate of hospitalizations and deaths.

He went further than Tam regarding Ontario’s actions, laying responsibility clearly at the feet of the premier and his ministers.

“Speaking for myself personally, as a public health physician and expert, our job really is to look at the evidence, the science, and do the analysis, the interpretation and then give our best advice and recommendations to our political masters,” Njoo said.

“At the end of the day, I think we recognize the elected officials are the ones that make the final decisions.”

Two hours later, Ford changed course and imposed tougher benchmarks than announced just this week for when new restrictions would be imposed in Ontario.

The Star reported this week the chief health protection officer at the province’s public health agency had urged the Ford government to set the threshold for action in the fourth colour-coded stage — known as red or “control” (one short of a lockdown) — four times lower than the government announced last week.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau declined to express his view of the Ford government’s actions.

The federal government’s job is to support the provinces, he said, and Ottawa will do “whatever it takes” to support Canadians in the health crisis.

He said it is best if “we move quickly, firmly” to impose restrictions where warranted.

Tam’s warning that Canada might hit 10,000 daily cases within weeks “should be a wake-up call for everyone,” Trudeau said.

Ottawa has provided more than $21 billion directly to provinces since the spring for health, school and business measures to allow them to fight the pandemic.

Trudeau, who has consistently rejected declaring a national emergency, said the “optimal thing” would be for everyone to work together, to take the right measures.

“I think it’s important to remember that we’re in a federation where the federal government is not higher than or more important than provincial governments,” he said.

”We work as partners together. The provinces expressed a need for these supports and we delivered these supports … and we will continue to.”

Trudeau said questions about whether the provinces are spending the federal money on the right things are “quite appropriately to be asked by citizens in the provinces and organizations in the provinces of their provincial leaders.”

But Trudeau said he warned premiers on a conference call Thursday night that the federal government’s resources are “not infinite.”

He later clarified he meant resources like the provisions of personal protective equipment, people to do contact tracing, and Canadian Red Cross and Canadian Armed Forces personnel.

Still, the dichotomy between political views and the views of medical experts was on full view in the prime minister’s own news conference when Trudeau left open the possibility for family gatherings during the holidays.

“We need to hang in there a number more months,” Trudeau told reporters, adding what Canadians do in the “days to come will determine what we get to do” at Christmas.

Tam offered a dimmer view.

“Right now it’s not looking good,” she said.

“Given the projection that we have now, which is we could get to 10,000 cases by the beginning of December if we didn’t cut down on our contact and drastically flatten this curve now, I think it’s very unlikely that by the holiday season – I don’t think anyone’s advocating parties.

“This is not going to be a normal Christmas, but you can have a safe and a fun Christmas that includes social connection if you do it safely.”

Thanksgiving and Halloween celebrations offer a “cautionary tale” because despite warnings against holding parties, private get-togethers “may have increased acceleration in a number of areas in Canada,” Tam said.

“That cannot be done. Right now, that is not recommended.”

Again, Njoo was clearer: “I don’t foresee gatherings of large families, perhaps only those in the same household,” he said. “We may need to limit even more, have only some members of the family for a visit.

“Every Canadian has to perhaps look in the mirror and ask, ‘What can I do today?’”

Tonda MacCharles is an Ottawa-based reporter covering federal politics for the Star. Follow her on Twitter: